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The disconnect between the number of movie releases and box office revenue indicates the COVID-19 pandemic likely created a structural shift in the movie viewing experience. So far in 2021, the number of movies released is just 24% below 2019 and 31% below 2018. Consumers simply aren’t returning to the theater as they once did. See Figure 3.įigure 3: AMC’s Core Earnings: 2013 – TTMĭomestic Box Office Sales: 2018-2021 New Constructs, LLCĪnd May Never Fully Rebound. Perhaps most alarming for AMC (and any other movie theater operator) is that the number of theatrical releases has rebounded at a much faster pace than box office sales.
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As I noted in my original Danger Zone report, the company’s Core Earnings were in decline even before the pandemic and have not rebounded in any meaningful way yet.ĪMC’s Core Earnings over the TTM are -$1.5 billion, up slightly from -$1.8 billion in 2020, but still well below the -$30 million in 2019 and $78 million in 2018 (the last year AMC earned positive Core Earnings). Rebound Remains Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels. Despite impressive YoY revenue growth, AMC’s TTM revenue remains 72% below its 2019 revenue. Overall, AMC’s adjusted debt net of cash sits at $11.9 billion through 3Q21, and the company earns a very unattractive credit rating. The firm’s total debt, which includes short-term debt, long-term debt, and operating leases is $12.3 billion, only a marginal improvement from $12.7 billion in 3Q20, and up from $11.1 billion in 3Q19. Before the pandemic, AMC burned through $5.1 billion in free cash flow from 2014-2019. That cash reserve will not last long given that free cash flow (FCF) was -$3.9 billion in 2020 and is -$2.9 billion over the TTM. Cash and equivalents through 3Q21 sit at $1.6 billion, up from $418 million in 3Q20, and $100 million in 3Q19. While the share issuances helped provide the firm cash, they have done little to improve the firm’s balance sheet. AMC’s Shares Outstanding: 2013-3Q21 New Constructs, LLC